Chris McCoskyThe Detroit News
Anaheim, Calif. — It’s too soon to start the countdown. The July 30 trade deadline is more than a month away.
And yet, as you watch Jack Flaherty take the mound against the Angels Thursday, there is an inescapable sense that his time in a Tigers uniform is winding down.
He’s on an expiring contract. In his short time with the Tigers, he has completely revitalized himself and he’s still only 28 years old. He is a young veteran with playoff experience. He went into his start in Anaheim with a sub-3 ERA (2.92) and sub-1 WHIP (0.972), holding hitters to a .221 average with a 33% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate.
He checks every box for a contending team looking to bolster their rotation for a playoff run. Which is why his name has been and will continue to be mentioned in speculative and substantive trade rumors.
“You try to enjoy what you have going on here,” Flaherty said earlier this week when asked how he was dealing with the rumors. “You try to work on yourself and focus as much as you can on the next start.
“I’m just trying to win every game here. And those things that are out of your control are out of your control.”
Flaherty’s name was bandied about at this time last year, too. But the circ*mstances were much different. He was struggling and the Cardinals, the team he was drafted by and grew up with, essentially offloaded him to the Orioles for three prospects.
“I would say last year was way more inevitable,” Flaherty said. “We all kind of knew. This year, I haven’t thought about it. I’ve just been in a better head space this year with everything. Just been enjoying it and trying to be around the guys.”
As we sit here on June 27, the Tigers are six games under .500 and six games out of the last wild card spot. They are 15 games behind the Guardians in the Central Division.
They have 17 games before the All-Star break — against the Angels, Twins, Reds, Guardians and Dodgers. They will play the Guardians 10 times and the Twins six times before the trade deadline.
Right now, as Tigers president Scott Harris and general manager Jeff Greenberg prepare for both scenarios, it’s hard to envision one where they don’t end up being sellers at the deadline.
But that doesn’t mean Flaherty is an automatic trade chip. Again, he’s 28. The Tigers made a significant investment in him, beyond the $14 million contract, in helping him regain his top-of-the-rotation form.
“I’ve been super lucky and super fortunate to have been able to work with these guys and develop the relationships I have and the improvements I’ve been able to make,” he said. “I just want to continue to do that and you do that one day at a time.
“We’ll just see what happens.”
Barring any health or performance setbacks, Flaherty, whether he’s traded at the deadline or not, will be at the top of the free agent pitching market this offseason.
And that fact probably emboldens the Tigers’ efforts to make a deal before the deadline.
Just looking at recent deals for starting pitchers, he’s likely in line for a multi-year deal at between $22 million and $30 million per year. The Tigers could absolutely afford to offer Flaherty an extension in that price range, but he’s earned the right to test his value on the open market.
The Tigers, though, won’t be desperate to trade him, as they might’ve been in the past when they were in all-or-nothing binds with the likes of J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton.
They have another card to play if they don’t trade Flaherty. They could make him a qualifying offer after the season. Last year, the qualifying offer was a little more than $20 million.
If Flaherty declined and signed with another team for at least $50 million, the Tigers would get a draft pick in 2025 between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A.
That’s roughly the area in the draft the Tigers took shortstop prospect Kevin McGonigle (37th overall) in 2023. There is plenty of value to be found in that part of the draft.
If Flaherty signs elsewhere for less than $50 million, the Tigers would get a pick after the second round (Competitive Balance Round B).
So there is some leverage there. There is also some recent history that favors the Tigers in this scenario. Last year, Michael Lorenzen was a struggling starting pitcher they signed on a one-year deal and, with their pitching development team, revitalized.
They flipped him at the trade deadline for infielder Hao-Yu Lee, now one of the top prospects in the organization. Lee is hitting .301/.376/.524 with a .900 OPS and 11 home runs at Double-A Erie.
The Tigers would rightly expect the haul for Flaherty to be even better.
Teams around the league have already started sending their pro scouts to evaluate Flaherty. Expect that group to increase in number with each start. Among their concerns will be his health. He's dealt with lower back tightness this month, since coming out of his start after five innings in Texas on June 4.
He had one start pushed back and he's taking treatment daily. It has not impacted his performance. He's allowed just one run in his last 22⅓ innings with 27 strikeouts and four walks.
"It's trending in a good direction," he said.
chris.mccosky@detroitnews.com
@cmccosky
Tigers at Angels
▶ First pitch: 9:38 p.m. Friday, Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California
▶ TV/radio: BSD/97.1
SCOUTING REPORT
▶ RHP Kenta Maeda (2-4, 6.00), Tigers: Getting into his starts has been a problem all season. Of the 38 runs he has allowed in his 13 starts, 20 have been scored in the first two innings (eight in the first, 12 in the second). Right-handed hitters, also, have been an issue. They are hitting .294 and slugging .569 against him. Eight of the 11 homers against him were hit by righties, who are besting his slider (.439, four home runs).
▶ RHP Zach Plesac (1-1, 8.68), Angels: The former Guardian is an emergency add to the Angels rotation after injuries to Patrick Sandoval and Jose Soriano. He was roughed up by the Dodgers last time out (six runs in 3⅓ innings) and he’s been giving up a lot of home runs both in the big leagues (four in 9⅓ innings) and in Triple-A (14 in 74⅔ innings). He features a pedestrian 90-mph four-seamer with a slider to right-handers and a changeup to lefties.
